Kinder Morgan

KMI · NYSE · Gas for power Owned Preliminary thesis

Preliminary thesis dated Nov 11, 2026. Full write-up to follow.

At a glance

Bought: Feb 11, 2025 · $25.37
Tracked since: Nov 11, 2026 · $31.59
Price (Nov 11, 2026): $31.59
Weight / target for the leg: 16.7% / 20%

The short version

KMI is transitioning from a high-dividend stock to a growth-focused company. Growth extends beyond the approved backlog, driven by demand from LNG and power, not solely AI, and is funded through cash flow.

Where I differ from the market

Market thinks: KMI is a reliable dividend stock, and its approved project backlog is already reflected in the share price.
I think: KMI is transitioning from a high-dividend stock to a growth-focused company. Growth extends beyond the approved backlog, driven by demand from LNG and power, not solely AI, and is funded through cash flow.
Right when: The backlog continues to grow as projects enter service and leverage remains within management’s target range.
Wrong if: The backlog stagnates, project costs rise, or the dividend stops growing.

What the full write-up adds

A value range with bear, base and bull cases, sized catalysts and risks, and a worst case that sets the position size. This preliminary thesis stays on the page, dated, when the full version goes up.

Update log

Nov 11, 2026Preliminary thesis published.