Mandate
A long-only, concentrated portfolio of 12 to 18 holdings, held for 3+ years. It invests where I believe spending is structural but priced as temporary: supply bottlenecks and long backlogs the market treats as a short-term story.
- Style
- Long-only, fundamental
- Holdings when fully built
- 12 to 18
- Holding period
- 3+ years, 1 year minimum where possible
- Position limits
- 10% at purchase, 15% hard cap
- Defense-budget exposure
- Capped at 45%
- Benchmarks
- Sector blend and S&P 500
Five legs and what I believe about each
| Leg | Target | Band | I think |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grid equipment | 25% | 20% to 30% | Grid spending is structural and outlasts the AI cycle. |
| Gas for power | 20% | 15% to 25% | Pipelines are toll roads with two demand engines: power generation and LNG exports. |
| Defense supply chain | 20% | 15% to 25% | Munitions shortfalls are a capacity gap that gets funded regardless of the next conflict. |
| Commercial aftermarket | 10% | 5% to 15% | Older fleets keep flying well past the delivery recovery. |
| Defense software | 20% | 15% to 25% | Integrators already inside defense programs capture the shift to software, at lower valuations than the AI names. |
| Cash | 5% | 0% to 10% | Funds new names, adds below target price, and rebalancing. |
Rules
Buying
- The business fits its leg's thesis
- A written variant view: market thinks, I think, right when, wrong if
- Price leaves upside to my fair value
Weight that can't be filled waits in cash.
Selling
- A "wrong if" condition is met
- Price passes fair value with nothing left in the thesis
- A position grows past the 15% cap
A falling price triggers a review, not a sale.
Rebalancing
- Act only when a leg leaves its band
- New cash and dividends go to underweight legs first
- Trim only if that isn't enough, checking holding periods
How performance is judged
Two comparisons, side by side. Against the S&P 500 (SPY): was this worth running instead of an index fund? Against a sector blend weighted like my targets (25% GRID, 20% MLPX, 50% ITA, 5% BIL): did my stock picks beat the sectors I chose? Both are total return, dividends included. Returns count from each holding's tracked-since date, never earlier.